On January 28th 2024, the military juntas in the Sahelian nations of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger released a joint statement announcing they had “decide[d] in complete sovereignty on the immediate withdrawal” from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The statement denounced that the regional bloc “under the influence of foreign powers, betraying its founding principles, has become a threat to its member states and its population”. More specifically, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – where military coups d’état occurred respectively in 2021, 2022, and 2023 – accused ECOWAS of failing to support their fight against “terrorism and insecurity”, while imposing “illegal, illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible sanctions”. Combined with France's troop withdrawal from the Sahel following recent coups, this development raises concerns about wider regional stability.

Maersk has announced it will begin using rail networks to transport cargo on select routes as an alternative to the Panama Canal, due to significant droughts. Since 40% of US container traffic travels through the canal, this disruption expected to have a considerable impact on inflation and the cost of living crisis. Most worryingly, this could exacerbate supply chain issues caused by the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, which has forced shipping companies to reroute their traffic to the Panama Canal in order to avoid the Suez Canal. The droughts and impact on trade are expected to continue, and the impact on global trade depends on whether alternative routes can meet international demand and address current issues.

The beginning of January has seen a renewal of strikes by the British Medical Association (BMA) on behalf of Junior Doctors, while expected strikes by the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT) on behalf of several London Underground departments have been cancelled at the last minute following “positive discussions.” Although discussions between RMT and TfL are now expected to restart, there is currently no timeline for negotiations between the Department of Health and the BMA to begin once again.

This blog has been written by Thomas Barton, the Founder and CEO of Polis Analysis, as part of the Progress Prize, which promotes economic, scientific and technology solutions as an antidote to Britain’s malaise to offer a new way forward.

For the last four years, Polis Analysis has supported our readership to navigate the turbulence of geopolitics. To ensure our readers continue to stay ahead of the curve, our 2024 Lookahead report delivers forensic analysis of the global developments that are set to dominate the political scene in 2024.

Vietnam houses roughly 20 million tons of rare earth materials, which are critical for advanced technologies such as smartphone screens, wind turbines, and electric vehicle magnets. Despite being the world’s second-largest rare earth reserve, these resources have remained mostly untapped. However, Vietnam aims to reopen major mines next year with Western support, intending to challenge China's stronghold in the industry. This move could provide a great source of revenue and economic growth for Vietnam, as well as represent a step forward towards renewable energy.

The Autumn Statement is an opportunity for the Government to implement fiscal policy changes to reflect their objectives, and respond to economic conditions. This year, inflation-driven wage growth has caused fiscal drag by pushing millions of workers into higher tax brackets, which left the Treasury with £25 billion of extra revenue. As such, cuts to tax rates appealing to the traditional Conservative base were always on the cards for this year’s autumn statement.

With Parliament open, the announcements made in the King’s Speech will begin to make their way through the legislative process. The bills headed to Parliament will have direct impacts on businesses across all areas of the economy. The King’s Speech demonstrated the opportunities legislation can provide, with regulatory frameworks to support new industries, investment in renewable energy, and licences for oil and gas. However, as the tobacco industry will attest, there are also risks that new legislation could restrict businesses. 

British politics has arguably been at its most volatile point since the Second Word War. From unprecedented churn in our Prime Ministers, to economic shocks leading to multi-decade record highs in inflation and the cost of living, political developments in the UK have shaped businesses and individuals in a profound way. This report makes an important contribution in analysing some of the events that are shaping Britain’s political direction.

Closing out this year’s Labour Party Conference, Leader of the Opposition Keir Starmer set out his idea of what a Labour government would look like. Whereas his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, was most enthused by businesses when talking about nationalisation, Starmer set a rather different tone. 

It is with great pleasure that we introduce this first issue of Polis Analysis Youth Affairs Report which shines a light on one of the most dynamic social justice movements, LGBTQIA+ rights. This report delves into the progress, challenges, and legal developments with a special focus on Uganda, Taiwan, India, and the United States.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on Wednesday a backtracking on a number of the UK’s current net zero policies. Although reiterating that he remains committed to the legally binding target of net zero by 2050, he has scrapped and delayed a number of initiatives that were intended to help the UK reach the target.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer revamped his frontbench on Monday, in a reshuffle ahead of an annual party conference in October, fine-tuning his team for what is likely to be the final time ahead of the next general election. The reshuffle has seen promotions for the likes of Hilary Benn and Liz Kendall, with notable demotions for Lisa Nandy and Jonathan Ashworth.

Ffos-y-Fran, the UK’s largest opencast coal mine located in Merthyr Tydfil, South Wales, has received confirmation of its closure date after 15 years of operation.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced his plans to grant over 100 licences across the coast of Scotland to undertake oil and gas drilling, and simultaneously unveiled two new locations for Carbon Capture Usage and Storage (CCUS) clusters in North East Scotland and the Humber.

On August 14, the US saw a landmark ruling for climate change law. Led by young activists, the case saw the state of Montana sued for its promotion of fossil fuel use, marking the first time in US history that a youth-led climate case has gone to trial, as 14 previous youth-led cases were dismissed (as per the UN Environmental Programme Report).

Biologging, the practice of attaching devices to animals to collect scientific data, has been developing at an accelerated speed over the last 5 years. Now, scientists can use GPS-tracking devices to track an animal’s movement, migration patterns, food habits and much more. 

In a country where nearly half of the population cannot read or write, WhatsApp's voice notes function has evolved into an essential tool for Senegalese farmers to collaborate and access information in local languages, thereby enhancing their agricultural practices and crop yields.

From Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate, Signature Bank in the US to Credit Suisse in Switzerland, the banking crisis in recent weeks has led to the collapse and acquisition of multiple banks. This has implications far beyond traditional finance.

Brazil's new government, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is planning new policies on regulating the internet. With over 200 million people, Brazil is the largest country in Latin America by both population and size.