At a glance

• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's five-decade family dynasty has suddenly collapsed following a lightning 10-day rebel offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), culminating in Assad's escape to Moscow.

• For Syrians, it represents potential freedom after decades of oppression but uncertainty about the future; for neighbouring countries, it reshapes regional power dynamics; while globally, nations will have to grapple with the implications of this sudden power shift.

• The immediate future focuses on political transition under interim Prime Minister al-Jalali and HTS leader al-Jolani, while Assad receives asylum in Moscow, raising critical questions about maintaining stability.

What is happening in Syria?

In a stunning turn of events, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's five-decade family dynasty has come to an abrupt end following a lightning 10-day rebel offensive that culminated in the capture of Damascus. Assad has fled to Moscow, where Russian state media confirms he has been granted asylum, marking the end of one of the Middle East's longest-standing authoritarian regimes.

The offensive:

The rapid collapse began on November 27 when opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by Turkish-backed militias, launched an unexpected offensive from northwest Syria. The rebels captured major cities in quick succession:

• Aleppo fell first, followed by Hama and Homs.

• Government forces largely melted away with minimal resistance.

• By Saturday, rebels had reached Damascus, prompting Assad's flight.

• The entire campaign resulted in relatively few casualties, with monitoring groups reporting 820 death.

Key Players and Context:

The sucessful offensive was spearheaded by HTS , a former al-Qaeda affiliate led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who has worked to rebrand his organization as a moderate force. The rebels' success appears to have been facilitated by several factors:

• Turkey's tacit support and coordination.

• The notable absence of intervention from Assad's traditional allies, Russia and Iran.

• The apparent internal collapse of regime institutions.

• Widespread defections from the Syrian military.

Immediate Aftermath:

Damascus has erupted in celebrations, with scenes of:

• Crowds waving revolutionary flags.

• People ransacking presidential palaces.

• Families reuniting with prisoners released from notorious regime prisons.

• The removal of Assad family portraits and statues.

Political Transition:

The rebels have moved quickly to establish transitional arrangements:

• Syria's Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali will remain to oversee the transition.

• HTS leader al-Jolani has promised to work toward building a new Syria.

• Multiple opposition groups are coordinating to establish a new governing structure.

• International bodies are calling for a peaceful transition protecting all Syrians.

The fall of Assad represents a seismic shift in regional politics, ending a brutal chapter in Syrian history that saw the death of over 300,000 people and the displacement of half the country's population during the civil war that began in 2011. The speed and relative ease of the regime's collapse has surprised observers and raised questions about possible coordination between rebels and elements within Assad's government.

International Response:

The fall of Assad's regime has prompted diverse reactions from world leaders and regional powers, reflecting the complex geopolitical implications of this sudden change.

United states:

President Joe Biden characterised Assad's fall as a "fundamental act of justice" while cautioning it represents a "moment of risk and uncertainty." The U.S. administration has:

• Pledged to engage with Syrian stakeholders for a peaceful transition.

• Expressed concerns about potential security vacuums.

• Deployed military assets to prevent ISIS from exploiting the situation.

• Meanwhile, President-elect Trump has advocated for non-intervention, declaring on Truth Social that Syria "is not our friend" and emphasising that this is "not our fight."

Europe:

• UK Prime Minister Meir Starmer has welcomed Assad's departure, calling for protection of civilians and restoration of stability.

• The UK's UN Ambassador Barbara Woodward emphasised the need for humanitarian access and civilian protection.

• German and other EU leaders have focused on maintaining diplomatic channels and ensuring regional stability.

Regional Powers:

• Israel has conducted airstrikes on security complexes in Damascus to prevent weapons from falling into hostile hands.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered Israeli forces to secure a buffer zone in the Golan Heights.

• Turkey's President Erdoğan, initially presenting himself as a mere spectator, later openly endorsed the rebel offensive.

• Russia, while granting Assad asylum, has requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting.

What is in it for you?

For readers in Syria, the fall of Assad represents a profound moment of transformation, marking both the end of decades of oppression and the beginning of an uncertain new chapter. After years of brutal conflict, checkpoints, and systematic repression, citizens are experiencing immediate tangible changes - from the release of prisoners to the removal of regime symbols that dominated daily life. For the millions displaced inside and outside Syria, this moment carries the first real hope of returning home, though tempered by concerns about stability under the new leadership. The challenges ahead are significant, with 90% of the population living below the poverty line and vast reconstruction needs, but for many, the simple ability to move freely and speak without fear marks a dramatic improvement in daily life.

For readers in surrounding nations, the impact creates a complex web of opportunities and challenges. Turkey finds itself with enhanced regional influence and the prospect of refugee repatriation, while Lebanon grapples with shifting power dynamics and Hezbollah's diminished position. Israel faces immediate security concerns about weapons proliferation but sees potential strategic benefits in reduced Iranian influence. Jordan and Iraq must recalibrate their border security and economic relationships with a transformed Syria, while simultaneously preparing for possible refugee returns and new reconstruction opportunities.

For the global community, particularly Western nations, Assad's fall represents a significant shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics that requires careful diplomatic recalibration. The United States and European nations must balance optimism about democratic change with concerns about regional stability and the rise of Islamist groups. The diminished influence of Russia and Iran in Syria creates new strategic opportunities but also raises questions about potential power vacuums.

What happens next?

Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali will maintain control of state institutions in the short term, working alongside a coalition of opposition groups to prevent governmental collapse. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, having already made symbolic appearances at Damascus's Umayyad mosque, must now transform from military commander to political leader, balancing his group's Islamist roots with promises of inclusive governance.

In Moscow, Assad's future appears set for now, with Russian authorities granting him asylum and negotiating agreements with Syrian opposition leaders to protect Russian military interests in the country. However, questions remain about potential international justice proceedings, with some nations already calling for Assad to face trial at The Hague for war crimes.

The Polis Team in London