In my New Year message to you last year, I mentioned that 2024 was a record year for elections. We have since seen incumbent parties hold onto power in Taiwan and India, while opposition parties have won elections in Ghana, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The other defining characteristic of 2024 was how economies globally were striving to tame inflation. While inflation has been brought under control in leading economies, global economic growth for 2024 remains weak and below pre-COVID levels.

Speaking of weakness, we end 2024 with many heads of government embattled, bruised and on the brink. The international community was shocked by the brief imposition of martial law in South Korea by President Yoon, and his subsequent impeachment. The Canadian government is on shaky ground with Prime Minister Trudeau suffering major resignations in his Cabinet and facing calls from parliamentarians in his own party to stand down. The German Chancellor Scholz’s days are numbered – he will be voted out in 2025 - and French President Macron is a lame duck who saw his government collapse in three months as he has no majority in the National Assembly. While British Prime Minister Starmer achieved a historic landside election this year, his government has struggled through its early days – Starmer has achieved record negative approval ratings for a new Prime Minister.

Changes in leadership in the world’s largest powers is far from the only geopolitical developments to look out for as we enter 2025. Conflict in Sudan is wrecking lives as the IMF projects GDP has shrunk in that country by over 18% in the last year. In the Middle East, Israel has signed a ceasefire with Lebanon and there are rumours of a long-awaited hostage deal which may bring an end to the conflict in Gaza. When it comes to the Middle East, all eyes are now on Syria as we enter 2025 with a proscribed terror organisation running one of the most complex countries on earth. The role of Turkey and the future of Kurds, Christians and Druze’s is in question following the end of Assad’s regime and the ensuing collapse of Iranian and Russian influence in Syria. Russian interference and influence is alive and kicking in Romania and Georgia, and Moldovan intelligence services are anticipating Russian meddling in its 2025 election.

When it comes to Russia, 2025 may be a defining year when it comes to its ongoing illegal invasion of Ukraine as President Elect Trump may bring the conflict to an end by forcing Ukraine to negotiate an agreement with Russia. The territorial integrity of Ukraine, European security and global energy and food prices are all at stake. A Trump presidency will have international ramifications in other ways, not least if he triggers an unprecedented global trade war by moving beyond China and also opting to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, the EU and the UK. You do not need to be an expert in game theory to know that retaliatory tariffs will lead to a downward spiral for global trade. All our readers will feel the economic consequences of such an outcome.

Global politics has been turbulent and unpredictable since Polis was founded and 2025 is not set to buck that trend. Our interconnected world means our readers from across 100 countries will feel the consequences of geopolitical events, impacting our finances, security and air quality. That is why our international team of experts will continue to deliver impactful analysis on how global political developments are shaping the lives of our readers. Our international team of experts spanning eight time zones at Polis have once again worked incredibly hard and diligently to deliver fact-based, impartial and accessible analysis to thousands of readers, which is why they deserve a well-earnt break over the festive period.

2024 has been an eventful and important year for Polis Analysis. We have attended NATO, cybersecurity and journalism conferences in Miami, Washington DC and London to present our work. I have given talks to world-leading universities and earlier this year we launched our first summer school work placements to equip the next generation with skills in geopolitical intelligence. This year has seen us make evidence submissions to numerous UK government consultations to share our policy recommendations on addressing online disinformation and how AI is evolving the threat landscape. Polis has published incisive reports, including a recent publication on disinformation and the Southport riots in the UK.

As ever, we will be hitting the ground running in 2025. Expect a lookahead report in the New Year so you can stay ahead of the key political trends and developments we expect to shape 2025. Polis will deliver a range of exciting initiatives in 2024 as we continue to deliver the quality political analysis we all deserve. From expanding our newly launched Polis Alumni Network to engaging the British government on our extensive policy research on online disinformation, we remain as determined as we were when founded in 2019 to make a positive social impact through our work. All our teams are steadfast in our resolve to continue to empower our readers to navigate the political world.

Wishing you all a happy Hannukah, Merry Christmas and all the best for the New Year.

Stay informed,

Thomas

Founder and CEO