At A glance

• North Korea’s defence treaty with Russia, promising mutual military aid, signals deeper cooperation, as North Korea reportedly supplied troops and weapons to Russia for the war in Ukraine, escalating global security concerns.

• For American readers, an isolationist U.S., particularly under a Trump administration, could embolden Russia and North Korea, undermining global security, international norms, and peace efforts in Europe and Asia

• The Russia-North Korea alliance may prolong the war in Ukraine. Western responses, including such as sanctions or increased military support for Ukraine, may shape the conflict’s trajectory, alongside heightened security efforts in East Asia.

What is happening?

North Korea has ratified a major defence treaty with Russia, committing both nations to mutual military aid, marking their most significant defence agreement since the Cold War. Signed in June by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership treaty obligates both countries to provide immediate military assistance if either is attacked. The agreement also emphasises cooperation in nuclear energy, space exploration, trade, and creating a "just and multipolar new world order."

Reports from U.S., South Korean, and Ukrainian intelligence suggest that North Korea has already sent up to 12,000 troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine, potentially as part of this treaty. Our Daily Briefing on 07/11/24 analysed the development of North Korea reportedly sending troops to support Russia in Ukraine – a claim Russia dismissed as "fake news”. Reports of recent clashes between Ukrainian forces and North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk border region raise concerns about North Korea's deeper involvement in the ongoing conflict - although not confirmed by the Pentagon.

South Korea, the U.S., and their allies worry about potential Russian transfers of sensitive technology to North Korea, which could accelerate the country’s nuclear and missile programs - such as enabling the development of advanced manoeuvrable cruise missiles, miniaturised nuclear warheads, and improved ICBMs and SLBMs, thereby overwhelming regional missile defences and fundamentally altering the security dynamic in Northeast Asia.

The treaty, ratified through a decree by Kim Jong Un, underscores growing military and economic cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Since August 2023, North Korea has reportedly supplied over 13,000 containers of weapons and ammunition to Russia to bolster its depleted stockpiles. 

This cooperation marks a significant escalation in the Russia-North Korea alliance, raising fears of increased instability in the region and beyond. By ratifying this treaty, Moscow and Pyongyang not only formalise their growing partnership but also underscore the international implications of their military collaboration, particularly for NATO and regional security in East Asia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed alarm over this development, describing it as a threat to global stability and urging stronger Western responses. Meanwhile, South Korea is increasingly concerned that Pyongyang might receive advanced nuclear technology from Moscow in exchange for its support, prompting South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol to warn of potential arms support for Ukraine if North Korean troops remain involved.

What is in it for you?

For readers in Ukraine, the deployment of up to 12,000 North Korean troops and the supply of weapons to Russia not only reinforces Moscow’s capacity to continue its military operations but also introduces new complexities to Ukraine’s efforts to defend its territory. While North Korean troops may lack advanced combat training, their deployment allows Russia to reallocate experienced personnel to strategic regions. This could stretch Ukrainian forces further, particularly in critical regions like Kursk, where clashes with North Korean troops have reportedly already occurred.

Moreover, the treaty underscores an expanding alliance between Russia and North Korea, which includes broader cooperation in areas like trade, nuclear energy, and military technology. This raises concerns that Pyongyang could receive advanced Russian military technology, potentially accelerating North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Such an exchange could not only pose a significant threat to regional security in East Asia but could also influence global power dynamics, drawing attention away from Ukraine’s plight. For Ukrainian readers, this represents an added layer of complexity in rallying international support, as Western powers may need to divert focus to address escalating threats elsewhere.

The geo-political stance of U.S. leadership could shape international responses to the Russia-North Korea treaty and the re-election of Trump will have effects on this development. If isolationist policies take place, it may embolden adversaries like Russia and North Korea, making the treaty a more potent threat. Similarly, NATO and U.S. allies in Europe and Asia could face greater insecurity, while adversaries like Russia and North Korea could likely capitalise on the reduced resistance. The ripple effects could destabilise not only Europe and Asia but the entire international order, with long-term consequences for global peace and stability.

The Russia-North Korea alliance might embolden both countries to challenge international norms, potentially leading to more conflicts or destabilising actions in other regions. The “just and multipolar new world order” they seek might involve undermining Western influence through partnerships with like-minded states.

What happens next?

The recent developments suggest that a prolonged war of attrition is likely in Ukraine, with Russia gaining support from North Korea to bolster its manpower and resources. This backing may be crucial as Russian resources reportedly dwindle, making continued Western support essential to Ukraine's chances of success.

The West's response to these changes will significantly impact the war's outcome, but it remains uncertain how they will act in the coming months. The West may impose more severe sanctions on both nations, targeting North Korea’s economy and any entities aiding the alliance. This could further isolate the two countries but may also drive them to deepen ties with other adversaries of the West, such as Iran or China.

South Korea may deliver arms to Ukraine or reinforce its military alliances with the U.S. and Japan, including deploying missile defence systems or increasing military drills in the region, which could provoke further aggression from North Korea.

Moreover, NATO could reevaluate its priorities, dedicating more resources to countering Russia’s influence in Eastern Europe and monitoring North Korea’s activities in East Asia. This may include intelligence-sharing, sanctions, and potentially naval deployments to deter further cooperation.

Concerns about Russia sharing advanced nuclear or missile technology with North Korea may materialise, significantly bolstering Pyongyang’s already advancing weapons programs. This could destabilise East Asia and trigger heightened military readiness in South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.

The Polis team in Melbourne