What is happening in Morocco?

Morocco is set to acquire two advanced spy satellites from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) in a deal reportedly worth $1 billion(£770,840,000). This significant purchase marks a major shift in Morocco's defence procurement strategy and highlights the growing ties between Morocco and Israel following the normalisation of relations as part of the Abraham Accords in 2020.

On 10 July 2024, IAI announced a $1 billion(£770,840,000) contract to supply one of its systems to an unnamed third party over a five-year period. While IAI did not specify the customer, multiple media sources, including Moroccan news websites Le Desk and Le 360, reported Morocco as the buyer. The deal is said to involve two Ofek 13 spy satellites, which are considered among the most advanced reconnaissance satellites in the world.

The Ofek 13 satellites are part of the OptSat 3000 series, the same type used by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for intelligence gathering. These satellites utilise synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technology, allowing them to capture high-resolution images in all weather conditions and even at night. With a resolution capability of up to 0.5 metres, these satellites represent a significant upgrade from Morocco's current observation satellites.

This deal is part of a broader trend of expanding defence cooperation between Morocco and Israel. Since the normalisation of relations, Morocco has become a major customer of Israel's defence industry. In 2022, Morocco purchased the Barak MX air defence system from IAI for $540 million(£416,337,300). The country has also acquired various unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from Israeli companies, including IAI's Heron 1 and systems from BlueBird Aero Systems.

The context behind this deal is multifaceted:

Regional competition: Morocco is in a race for technological and military superiority in North Africa, particularly with its neighbour Algeria. The acquisition of advanced spy satellites is seen as a way to strengthen Morocco's intelligence capabilities and maintain its edge in the region.

Western Sahara dispute: Morocco has long-standing tensions over the Western Sahara region. Enhanced surveillance capabilities could help Morocco monitor activities in this disputed territory more effectively.

Shift from French to Israeli technology: This deal represents a significant shift for Morocco, which previously relied on French-led consortiums for its satellite technology. The choice of Israeli technology over French alternatives signals a realignment of Morocco's strategic partnerships.

Israel's expanding influence: For Israel, this deal represents a major diplomatic and economic victory, further cementing its position as a key player in the region following the Abraham Accords.

Economic diversification: Morocco aims to boost its domestic aerospace industry. The deal with IAI includes provisions for technology transfer and local production, aligning with Morocco's goals for economic development and technological advancement.

The involvement of key figures such as IAI chairman Amir Peretz, who has strong connections in Morocco, has been instrumental in facilitating this deal. The agreement also aligns with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's "Mattei Plan," which aims to strengthen economic ties between Europe and Africa.

What is in it for you?

For readers in Morocco, acquiring advanced Israeli spy satellites represents a significant leap in national security capabilities that could have far-reaching implications for daily life. On a practical level, this enhanced surveillance technology could lead to improved border security and more effective counter-terrorism efforts, potentially resulting in a safer living environment. The deal may also boost national pride, as Morocco positions itself as a technological leader in North Africa.

Economically, the agreement's provisions for technology transfer and local production could create new job opportunities in Morocco's burgeoning aerospace sector. This might open up career paths for young Moroccans in high-tech fields, potentially stemming brain drain and fostering innovation. However, the $1 billion(£770,840,000) price tag might raise concerns about public spending priorities, especially among those who feel that resources could be better allocated to address immediate social needs such as healthcare, education, or poverty alleviation.

The shift from French to Israeli technology partners could also impact Morocco's diplomatic and cultural ties. While some may welcome the diversification of international partnerships, others might worry about potential backlash from sectors of society opposed to normalisation with Israel, particularly in light of ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Nonetheless, the deal could lead to increased cultural and economic exchanges between Morocco and Israel, potentially offering new opportunities for trade, tourism, and academic collaboration.

For Israeli readers, this deal represents a tangible success of the Abraham Accords, demonstrating the economic and diplomatic benefits of normalised relations with Arab states. The contract is a significant boost for Israel's defence industry, which could translate into job security and economic growth in the sector. Israeli workers in the aerospace and defence industries may see increased demand for their skills, potentially leading to better job prospects and higher wages.

However, some Israelis might have concerns about the proliferation of advanced military technology in the region and its long-term implications for regional stability. There may also be debates about the ethical considerations of arms sales and their potential impact on conflicts in the area.

What happens next?

In the short term, the immediate focus will be on the implementation of this deal. For Morocco, this will involve preparing for the delivery and integration of the Ofek 13 satellites into their existing defence infrastructure. This process will likely include training Moroccan personnel to operate and maintain these advanced systems, potentially involving Israeli experts working closely with Moroccan counterparts. We can expect increased diplomatic and technical exchanges between the two countries as they collaborate on this project. For Israel, the immediate priority will be fulfilling the contract, which may lead to increased production activity at IAI and its subcontractors. This could result in a short-term boost to Israel's defence industry employment and economic output.

Looking at the longer term, this deal could have transformative effects for both nations. For Morocco, the acquisition of these advanced satellites could significantly enhance its intelligence-gathering capabilities, potentially altering the balance of power in North Africa. This could lead to a renewed focus on the Western Sahara issue, with Morocco having an enhanced ability to monitor the disputed territory. The technology transfer aspects of the deal may spur the development of Morocco's domestic aerospace industry, potentially positioning the country as a regional hub for high-tech manufacturing. For Israel, this deal could pave the way for further defence contracts in Africa and the Arab world, cementing its position as a major player in the global defence industry. The strengthened ties with Morocco might also serve as a model for normalising relations with other Arab states.

The Polis Team in London