What is happening in Central Asia?

The August 9 gathering of Central Asian leaders and Azerbaijan in Astana highlighted a growing spirit of regional cooperation, with a focus on sustainable development. Kazakh President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, emphasised the potential of Central Asia to contribute significantly to the global Sustainable Development Agenda, while Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev echoed the sentiment of transforming Central Asia into a region of good-neighbourliness and mutual benefit. 

For the first time, the Central Asian republics explicitly discussed and proposed a roadmap for regional integration, despite historical obstacles such as Russian influence and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which often prioritises Russia’s goals. Turkmenistan has historically been a significant obstacle to regional connectivity due to a lack of qualified personnel for international cooperation, yet this development may signify its opening. 

The meeting underscored the collective desire to enhance trade within the region and connect to Western markets via the Middle Corridor, with efforts to remove trade barriers and modernise border checkpoints. However, while progress has been made, particularly through bilateral agreements, challenges remain in implementing these initiatives effectively.

A key trade initiative discussed was a "green power plan" by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to export renewable energy to Western markets in the form of solar and wind-generated electricity across the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, highlighted the strategic importance of the region, emphasising shared historical, cultural, and geopolitical ties. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the region's largest economies, are leading efforts to promote regional economic cooperation and integration.

In a one-on-one meeting preceding the regional gathering, Tokayev and Mirziyoyev signed over a dozen agreements, focusing on streamlining border controls, boosting agricultural trade, and addressing environmental concerns, particularly the rational use of transboundary water resources. They set a target to double their annual bilateral trade to $10 (£7.8) billion, with a focus on enhancing agricultural trade, which already constitutes a significant portion of their trade relations.

The summit resulted in the signing of the “Central Asia 2040” strategy, outlining practical measures to enhance economic cooperation, security, and regional identity. The five republics committed to eliminating trade barriers, harmonising regulations, and fostering a common regional identity through shared historical narratives and media. These initiatives will be further developed and discussed at the next summit in Tashkent, signalling a concerted effort to strengthen regional unity and resilience.

Overall, the meeting reflected a shared commitment to regional cooperation, sustainable development, and economic integration, with key players such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan taking the lead in driving these efforts forward. However, the success of these initiatives will depend on the effective implementation of the agreements and the continued commitment of all parties involved - a region with a history of border clashes and territorial disputes. 

What is in it for you?

For our readers in Central Asian countries, the August 9 gathering in Astana represents a significant moment of hope and opportunity for the region. The emphasis on regional cooperation and sustainable development suggests a future where Central Asia can leverage its collective strengths to achieve greater economic integration and prosperity.

For citizens, this could mean improved trade and economic opportunities, especially with efforts to remove barriers and modernise infrastructure. The focus on renewable energy and environmental concerns signals a commitment to a more sustainable future, which could lead to enhanced quality of life through better resource management and environmental protection ultimately supporting increased trade, job creation, and economic growth.

For our readers interested in environmental and sustainability advocacy, the focus on sustainable development and green energy initiatives may resonate. The meeting in Astana could lead to increased international support for Central Asia’s environmental projects. For example, NGOs, environmental activists, and global sustainability organisations may become more involved in Central Asia, offering expertise, funding, and support for green initiatives.

In response, Western and European markets could be significantly affected by the "green power plan" to export renewable energy from Central Asia. This initiative aligns with global efforts to reduce carbon footprints and transition to cleaner energy sources. Consumers and businesses in Europe seeking sustainable energy solutions may benefit from increased access to renewable energy, potentially lowering energy costs and contributing to environmental goals.

What happens next?

Looking ahead, the agreements signed between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as well as other bilateral and regional commitments, will need to be effectively implemented. This includes improving trade systems, modernising infrastructure such as border checkpoints, and addressing environmental concerns such as water resource management. It is key to note that China has surpassed Russia as the region's largest trade partner and has invested heavily in its ‘Belt and Road Initiative’, which may act as a catalyst for the aforementioned required implementations. 

Kazakhstan’s low-cost electricity and lenient regulations have driven numerous data centre projects to its region. In 2021, Kazakhstan had become the world's second-largest Bitcoin producer, with up to 7% of the country's energy production powering data centres at the height of the Bitcoin boom. Despite recent stricter regulations, companies such as Binance remain optimistic about Kazakhstan's crypto future, with ongoing projects such as the Digital Tenge, which can be supplemented with renewable energy in the form of wind and solar-generated electricity.

However, Russia’s influence in Central Asia is still a significant factor in the region's geopolitical landscape. Historically, Central Asia has been within Russia’s sphere of influence, given its proximity, historical ties, and the presence of Russian-speaking populations in some Central Asian states. 

To prevent these tensions from undermining regional cooperation, Central Asian leaders will need to carefully balance their relationships with Russia while pursuing their own regional integration and development goals. This may involve engaging Russia in regional projects in a way that aligns with both the interests of Central Asia and Russia, ensuring that Russia sees value in cooperation rather than competition.

Furthermore, regional forums and organisations that include Russia, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) or the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), could play a crucial role in managing these tensions by providing a platform for dialogue and collaboration on shared interests.

Ultimately, the success of Central Asia’s regional integration efforts will depend on the ability of its leaders to navigate the complex web of geopolitical interests, including Russia’s, while maintaining their focus on sustainable development and mutual benefit.

The Polis Team on the Gold Coast