What is happening in Africa?

A new report published by development agency FSD Africa and impact advisory Shortlist, supported by Boston Consulting Group, predicts a greener economy could generate millions of new jobs in some of Africa’s largest countries. More specifically, the research forecasts that 3.3 million jobs could be generated on the continent by 2030.

The report makes its forecasts focusing on direct job creation from the transition, meaning the number could go up when considering indirect and induced jobs. It also focuses on 12 value chains from five material sectors: energy and power, mobility and transportation, agriculture and nature, construction and real estate, and manufacturing and materials. Finally, the report geographically focuses its forecasts on five countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. These countries are expected to contribute 30%(930K) of the new green jobs by 2030.

Some of the other main findings of the report state that solar energy is expected to generate 50% (1.7M) of the green jobs. Whilst unskilled jobs represent the majority of jobs forecasted with over 40% (510K-1,300K), specialised and general and administrative jobs combined make up 50% (630K-1,620K) of total job creation. These represent the jobs that require vocational training or even jobs skilled by general courses or college. 

One of the main aims of the report is to enable stakeholders such as funders, learning institutions, employers and policymakers to take action. Some of those actions as prescribed by the report include investing in skill development and high-potential sectors or the crafting of support policies to incentivise green job creation. 

The green transition is an increasingly urgent matter for many African countries. Indeed, this FDS Africa report comes only a couple of years after the publication of the 2022 African Economic Outlook by the African Development Bank. The Outlook notably found that Africa is currently losing $7bn to $15bn annually due to the devastating effects of climate change. It also forecasts that this number could rise to $30bn by 2030. As such, beyond the potential gains that can be made from the transition, there are also current losses associated with climate change that many of those nations need to address.

What is in it for you?

For readers interested in climate change and the green transition, this report comes as positive news for a few reasons. Firstly, it emphasises the potential gains that can be incurred from greener economies which is often one of the main points of contention and debate regarding whether or not to transition in the first place. 

Secondly, reports such as this one are important as they extend the outlook and the climate discourse to stakeholders beyond the big powers. Indeed, where much of the discussion regarding transition often centres around United States, European or Chinese policy and actions, there is often less attention given to the effects a greener economy could have on other regions or less developed countries. For example, some of the research currently undertaken by the European Union explores the idea of “degrowth” whereas this report shows a different side to the transition, presenting it as a strategy for growth in Africa rather than a sacrifice of it. 

For readers on the African continent in general, this report also provides a potential solution to the continent’s important demographic challenge for the future. Indeed, Africa is set to face a youth bulge, a stage of development where countries successfully reduce infant mortality but where fertility rates remain high creating a relatively large and growing share of youthful population. 

According to the World Bank, Africa is the “only region where the workforce will grow continuously in the coming decades” with the the population of young people (aged 15-24) projected to reach 500 million in 2080 and the working age population (of 25-64) set to peak after 2100 at about 1.5 billion people. 

These demographic shifts can represent considerable opportunities for economic growth if they are coupled with increased employment and investment in key sectors such as education and health. However, they can also represent security threats and unrest if those countries cannot provide opportunities and employment to these growing young populations. This report notably shows one of how countries can capitalise on the opportunities provided by a youth bulge through investment in the green economy, which can help generate some of the much-needed employment growth on the continent.

More particularly, for readers in African countries with high unemployment rates such as South Africa (32,9%) or Djibouti (26,2%) the findings of the report offer optimism regarding potential future opportunities and job creation. Indeed, the figure of 3.3 million jobs created by 2030 focusing only on direct green jobs created means a shift to a greener economy could generate even more employment than that with induced jobs (that are created by the increased economic activity resulting from direct and indirect workforce spending) and indirect jobs (that get created in the supply chain of the green growth or in its outputs). 

This could be particularly important in countries such as Rwanda where one of the main issues is high youth unemployment (21.5%) as it offers different and new avenues for a younger workforce to develop and grow.

What happens next?

Although the findings of the report are positive, the researchers place emphasis on the necessity of “persistent and intentional action” in order to achieve the targets. Paul Breloff, the CEO of Shortlist, notably stated that ”Policymakers and funders and workforce developers need to step up to meet this near-term demand with effective training, apprenticeships, and job/skill matching, in hopes of achieving Africa’s green promise”. It will be important that the relevant stakeholders take the necessary action to facilitate these developments as policy and investment will be key in defining Africa’s green future.

Berloff also stated that “This is the first public report that takes seriously the notion that human capital and talent is important as an input to green economic growth, and as a positive outcome – in the form of millions of new, direct jobs”. It will be interesting to see how research in the field can build on some of the report’s findings and approaches as increased focus is placed on the potential gains from transition.

The Polis Team in Barcelona